Europe’s energy system is facing a new security reality. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, growing geopolitical instability and rising electricity demand have turned energy policy into a question of resilience and strategic autonomy. For the Nordic countries, strengthening domestic energy production is no longer only about meeting climate targets, but about safeguarding economic stability and security of supply. In this context, offshore wind stands out as one of the most powerful tools available to rapidly scale up clean, home-grown energy across the region.

Yet despite strong ambitions and favourable natural conditions, offshore wind deployment in the Nordics remains too slow. Complex permitting processes, regulatory uncertainty and weak investment conditions continue to delay projects. Against this backdrop, the new Nordic Energy Research report Accelerating Offshore Wind in the Nordics examines what is holding development back – and what can be done to speed it up.

Clear targets and predictable frameworks matter most

The report’s main conclusion is clear: the most significant barriers to offshore wind in the Nordics are not technical, but institutional. A lack of binding targets, long-term political commitment and predictable regulatory frameworks increases risk for developers and investors, raising costs and slowing delivery.

“Denmark has spent decades refining a coherent system for offshore wind, with clear political direction, preliminary government-led investigations and a single point of contact for permitting,” says Øyvind N. Handberg, lead author of the report.

Øyvind N. Handberg, Senior Adviser, Menon Economics.

 

“In Norway, Sweden and Finland, targets and processes are less predictable and more fragmented. Predictability is key: specific, time-bound and binding national targets, followed up with strategies and action plans, are prerequisites for other supporting policies.”

According to the report, early-stage risk is a decisive factor in determining whether projects reach final investment decision. When responsibilities are split across several authorities and timelines are uncertain, developers must price in higher risk, making projects more expensive or financially unviable.

National differences, shared challenges

While regulatory frameworks differ across the Nordic countries, several challenges recur. In Sweden, offshore wind development is largely developer-led. Municipal veto rights, late-stage security assessments and uncertainty around grid connection mean that projects can be stopped after substantial resources have already been invested. Finland has taken steps to reform its licensing framework in the Exclusive Economic Zone, but the absence of support schemes and unresolved grid connection issues remain major obstacles. Norway has announced ambitious long-term capacity targets, yet political uncertainty and complex tender and support designs continue to deter investment.

A common feature across several countries is that too much responsibility is placed on developers at an early stage. This increases risk, raises costs and reduces the number of projects that progress from planning to construction.

Learning from Belgium and the Netherlands

The report also highlights lessons from international frontrunners. Belgium and the Netherlands demonstrate how a more proactive role for the state can accelerate offshore wind deployment while maintaining robust environmental safeguards and public acceptance.

“What we see in countries like the Netherlands and Belgium is the value of the state taking responsibility early in the process,” says Handberg. “By carrying out surveys, environmental assessments, and grid planning before areas are tendered, authorities reduce uncertainty and cost and enable developers to focus on delivery rather than risk management.”

In the Netherlands, developers bid on well-prepared sites where key risks have already been addressed. Belgium has combined binding marine spatial plans with early stakeholder engagement and centrally coordinated permitting.

“These are not shortcuts,” Handberg adds. “They are well-designed systems that combine speed with robustness, and that is exactly what the Nordic countries need to replicate if offshore wind is to scale up in time. Good offshore wind planning makes well-founded and transparent trade-offs between positive and negative impacts.”

Practical guidance for decision-makers

For policymakers, the report provides clear and actionable guidance. Binding national targets, predictable support schemes, coordinated permitting processes and early public provision of data are identified as the foundations for faster and more cost-effective deployment.

“Offshore wind will only deliver if political ambition is matched by concrete policy action,” says Klaus Skytte, CEO of Nordic Energy Research.

Klaus Skytte, CEO, Nordic Energy Research.

 

“Clear targets, predictable frameworks and well-coordinated permitting processes are essential to move projects from plans to reality.” Skytte stresses that governments have a decisive role to play in reducing risk and shortening timelines.

“By taking greater responsibility early in the process – through planning, data provision and coordination – governments can significantly reduce risk, shorten timelines and lower costs,” he adds. “That is how offshore wind can contribute both to climate goals and to long-term energy security in the Nordic region.”

At a time when energy policy and security policy are increasingly intertwined, offshore wind is not merely a climate solution. It is a strategic asset. With the right policy choices, offshore wind can play a central role in building a more resilient, competitive and secure Nordic energy system.