Nordic Energy Research

“It’s time to act”, as last year’s winner of the Nordic Energy Challenge, Simon Vilms Pedersen puts it in the video above.

The Nordic countries have a unique and long-standing cooperation on energy, which has created a solid foundation for the development of a sustainable and secure energy supply in the region. Now, it is time to take the next step in enhancing Nordic cooperation on sustainable transport.

Transport is the sector that requires the largest emissions reductions for the Nordic region to achieve carbon neutrality. It is also considered one of the most difficult sectors to decarbonize, due to, among other things, the need for alternative fuels, efficient integration of energy systems, new infrastructure and modal shifts in transport, as well as coherent policies to combine these elements. Simultaneously, an array of barriers must be overcome regarding legal and regulatory aspects, safety and social acceptance, as well as structural challenges related to finance, procurement and market development that affect large-scale deployment of sustainable solutions.

Nordic Energy Research aims to promote innovative research, new ideas and interesting perspectives on sustainable transport which, in turn, can bring added value to the Nordic region. 

Submit your game-changing proposal for the Nordic cooperation needed to decarbonize the transport sector.

The jury behind the Nordic Energy Challenge has awarded a winner and second and third place in the 2020 final.

1. Simon Vilms Pedersen from University of Southern Denmark (SDU) with the proposal:
   On the Road to Nordic Decarbonization 2050
2. Claire Bergaentzlé, Philipp Andreas Gunkel and Daniel Møller Sneum from Denmark’s Technical University (DTU) with the proposal:
   A sustainable and integrated Nordic region
3. Marianne Zeyringer from University of Oslo (UiO) with the proposal:
   Unlocking the renewable energy potential in the Nordics

The Nordic P2X for Sustainable Road Transport assessed the potential for reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from road transport within the Nordics by the use of electrofuels. Renewable electricity from wind and solar is growing fast in the Nordics, which gives an opportunity for decarbonising the road transport sector, including both heavy (trucks and buses) and light vehicles (cars, mopeds and motorcycles).

The Nordic countries each have ambitious climate goals. Achieving the ambitious targets requires solutions to reduce emissions in the sectors where it has so far been difficult. One solution is the possibility of converting renewable power to hydrogen (via electrolysis) and to other electrofuels. The conversion of electricity will help to integrate more renewable energy into the energy system in sectors that are difficult to decarbonize, but may also reduce the rapidly growing need for expansion of the electricity infrastructure.

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Nordic P2X for Sustainable Road Transport: Executive Summary

Electrofuels (e-fuels) produced from renewable electricity in the Nordics could contribute to both increasing the domestic production of renewable fuels, and to achieving national targets for decarbonizing the transport sector. Reducing emissions from road transport can, to a significant degree, be achieved by vehicle electrification – being far more energy efficient on a well-to-wheel basis than e-fuels – but there is still a large demand of liquid and gaseous fuels expected, especially for heavy-duty transport, even in a time frame up to 2050. Together with biofuels, e-fuels – including both liquid and gaseous, carbon- containing fuels and hydrogen – could be an option to fill this demand.

The project – conducted in collaboration between CIT Industriell Energi AB, THEMA Consulting AS and VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland – identified candidate locations in the Nordic countries for hydrogen and subsequent e-fuel production (methane, methanol, DME and FT-diesel) for fuelling road transport within the Nordics for a timeframe up to 2045. Sites have been ranked by production costs, greenhouse gas emission savings, and infrastructural aspects. Water resource availability was also analysed, but results showed that water availability is not a critical factor for plant siting decision within the Nordics.

The major conclusions from the present project are:

For e-fuel production sites co-located with industrial emissions sources in the Nordics, the key features of attractive sites are a low power price, potential by-product revenues and plant size

The location of e-fuel production sites at industrial large-scale CO₂ sources in low power cost regions is a viable near-term choice to allow the rapid ramp-up of carbon-based e-fuel production in the Nordics. This is due to the most important factors for low e-fuel production costs being: a low power price, potential revenues of by-products (oxygen and heat), and plant size (economies of scale). For hydrogen e-fuel production, where plant economics are even more sensitive to power prices, this conclusion is also considered valid. Even though hydrogen production is not dependent on a CO₂ source, benefits from co-location with industrial infrastructure are still to be expected, and low power price regions will still be the most attractive from a production cost perspective.

The present assessment is based on the current energy system infrastructure and known near- to medium-term developments. The report authors analysed whether locating hydrogen production where power was cheapest in the Nordics and then paying for hydrogen transport was likely to be cheaper than local hydrogen production for e-fuel production facilities located at industrial CO₂ sources. This analysis indicates that power price differences within the Nordics are too small relative to the costs of hydrogen transportation to motivate off-site hydrogen production elsewhere in the region. Future changes to the relevant infrastructure – such as the build-up of an extensive hydrogen transport infrastructure or a CO₂ transport system – might lead to differing conclusions.

Power consumption is the main limiting factor on the volume of fuels that can be produced

The upper limit for e-fuel production is set by the maximum size of electrolyser chosen in the analysis (200 MW_el). This assumption accounts for potential limitations in electric power supply infrastructure. The theoretical amount of e-fuels produced based on the availability of carbon dioxide would be substantially higher. Consequently, a massive ramp-up of capacity could generate substantial amounts of e-fuels provided there was an available supply of renewable power. The estimated e-fuel amounts generated from the 15 sites with the lowest production costs in the Nordics correspond to a share of about 10 % of total energy demand for road transport, well in line with e-fuel uptake scenarios developed as part of this study. However, the focus of the analysis was on identifying the relative attractiveness of different e-fuel production sites and further investigation would be necessary to come up with better founded estimates of possible e-fuel production volumes.

E-fuel production at smaller scale from biogas plants can be a cost-competitive alternative from a national perspective

Co-location with large biogas plants can be a cost-competitive solution from a national perspective, since the available pure CO₂ stream reduces investment and operating costs. However, the volumes of e-fuels that can be produced at lower cost at biogas plants are considerably smaller compared to levels reached at large scale industrial CO₂ sources. Further, large biogas plants are mainly situated in southern Sweden and Denmark, with relatively high power prices, which makes large scale e-fuel production in low power price zones (e.g. Norway) the economically preferable option from a Nordic perspective.

E-fuels produced in the Nordics can achieve – and surpass – the greenhouse gas reduction requirements of 70 % from EU directives

With respect to greenhouse gas emission reductions, e-fuels produced within the Nordic countries can surpass the 70 % reduction requirement of European directives, based on currently available calculation methodology. Thus, e-fuels could contribute to reaching mandatory levels of advanced renewable transport fuels. In this context, it is important to note that the final methodology for e-fuels specifically is not yet specified. E-fuel production sites are expected to use power sourced from a portfolio of onshore wind sites, complemented by grid power, which would give emission reductions above 90 %. Even e-fuel production in the Nordics using grid electricity is expected to be compliant with the reduction target of 70 %, excepting Denmark and Finland in the very near term (2025). In addition to access to renewable electricity, the major site-specific factor influencing the GHG emission reduction potential is heat export opportunities, which are expected to allow emissions to be allocated to the useful heat that is generated as a by-product in the production process.

Whether carbon dioxide is of fossil or biogenic origin does not impact the GHG emission reduction potential of e-fuels, which, based on currently available information, is reflected in the set-up of EU directives. From a long-term perspective, the use of fossil fuels will/should be phased out or converted to bioenergy where possible. Therefore, biogenic carbon dioxide sources, and/or applications with intrinsic CO₂ emissions such as from cement industry, may be a more secure source. A more comprehensive life cycle assessment, which accounts for site-specific conditions, the impacts of plant construction and allocation to other non-energy by-products, e.g. oxygen, should be considered. To understand the total climate impacts of increased e-fuel production in the Nordics a system level analysis would be needed.

Fuel distribution infrastructure is favourable for most sites that are top-ranked from a cost perspective and for all sites in Denmark and Southwestern Sweden

The three aspects most important for the ranking based on distribution infrastructure are the availability of a harbour at the production site, that the fuel produced can utilize existing distribution infrastructure, and proximity to demand centres. Most top-ranked sites with respect to production costs have access to a harbour, but not all. On the other hand, all sites in Denmark – though not top-ranked from an overall Nordic cost perspective – have access to the natural gas grid and are located close to demand centres. It is clear that the possibility to utilize existing distribution infrastructure benefits the near-term development of e-fuel production. This is the case for liquid drop-in fuels and for e-methane where there is access to a natural gas or biogas grid.

E-fuels for road transport and P2X in general need to be analysed from a broader perspective

Building up a renewable e-fuel production infrastructure requires vast investments and large amounts of additional renewable electricity generation. A more holistic approach is necessary to clarify the roles of e-fuels – and P2X applications for materials, chemicals, or energy storage in a broader sense – for the future energy system. The present study – which focuses on identifying optimum locations for e-fuel production in the Nordic countries – can be used as a starting point for or contribution to a broader analysis. With respect to low-carbon transport, the results of the present study can serve as benchmark for e-fuels with respect to other measures such as biofuels or direct electrification.

This project provides a foundation for a broader consideration of the appropriate use of e-fuels by establishing an analytical framework for the assessment of costs and a detailed database of large scale industrial CO₂-point sources that could be used for e-fuel production in the Nordics

A database of e-fuel production cost and greenhouse gas emission reductions covering 232 industrial sites within the Nordics has been established. The database can form the basis of further investigations and allows for customization and adaption. Carbon dioxide amounts, origin (fossil/organic), and concentration estimates, as well as local markets/demand for by-products oxygen and heat are included in the database. Power price scenarios based on a sophisticated modelling approach for the timeframe 2025 – 2035 – 2045 for the Nordic electricity price zones are included. The analytical framework – which links a comprehensive Nordic power system model, structured techno-economic data, and life-cycle-based GHG emission performance analyses – is a valid starting point for further studies of the role of e-fuels in the Nordic energy system.

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Tracking Nordic Clean Energy Progress is a brief, illustrative report that charts Nordic progress towards a carbon neutral society by highlighting the most prominent trends and examining scenarios where Nordic solutions can have a global impact. The report illustrates – for multiple technologies and key parameters – the latest progress in technology development and penetration, as well as market creation.

Nordic Energy Research and the International Energy Agency (IEA) published a Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives (NETP) report in both 2013 and 2016. Together, these publications represent the largest-ever collaborative IEA initiative on regional long-term, cost-efficient, low-carbon technology pathways. This report applies the global energy scenarios of the IEA’s Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) to the Nordic countries, utilising rich national data and addressing opportunities and challenges specific to the Nordic countries.

Fig 1.2: Nordic CO2 emissions and economic growth by sector

This report also aims to provide useful analytical insights into the progress made by the Nordic countries towards achieving Nordic Carbon Neutrality in line with the initiative adopted by the Nordic prime ministers in Helsinki in January 2019.

Get the report

Tracking Nordic Clean Energy Progress first published in 2019, launched on October 1st in Reykjavik, Iceland.

The second edition of the report was released in April 2020 and provides updated figures and statistics, as well as a new section on the energy transition in Europe and the rest of the world.

Click the “download publication” button above for a PDF, or visit the publications page. Hard copies can be ordered by contacting Nordic Energy Research.

Watch a presentation of the 2019 edition

COP 25
Presentation of 2019 report from COP 25 on 12.12.19 from senior adviser Bo Diczfalusy:

Next Steps for Climate Action

Presentation of the 2019 report from the event “Next Steps for Climate Action” 26.11.2019 by senior adviser Kevin Johnsen, time code 00:38:30 – 

How can a small community implement a system based on 100 per cent renewable energy? This series of  reports provide practical guidelines for renewable energy projects, and help communities in sparsely populated areas in their green transition.

The Nordic countries have set ambitious targets for implementing renewable energy sources and energy storage, which will move them closer to a sustainable fossil-free energy system. Small communities represent an exciting opportunity for a much faster transition to a system based on 100 per cent renewable energy than would be possible in urban areas.

Renewable energy supply and storage: Guide for planners and developers in sparsely populated areas will help small communities overcome the challenges associated with implementing renewable energy systems. The guide is produced by Nordic Energy Research and consulting group COWI.

The guide provides how to develop affordable, and reliable, renewable energy projects, using off-the-shelf technology.  The guide is designed to be highly adaptable, and it provides formulas for calculating the costs and benefits of particular energy and heating systems based on the needs of the community. Planners can, for example, work out whether a district heating system is best for their town, or whether system based on individual heat pumps would be more efficient.

It also provides answers to questions like: Is it better to store heat for later use in insulated water tanks or use a system where energy is stored in batteries?  The guide considers as many variables as possible, to help planners decide on the best approach for their specific energy project.

The project partners have initiated a pilot program in Leirvík on the Faroe Islands, to see how the guide can be used in practice. As the project unfolds the hope is that Leirvík will make the transition to a renewable energy system.

Contact for the Nordic project:

Torill Meistad, Nordic Energy Research

torill.meistad@nordicenergy.org

Ph.+47 91 576 576

Contact for pilot project at the Faroe Islands:

Kári Mannbjørn Mortensen, Umhvørvisstovan

KariMannbjornM@us.fo

Ph. +298291706

Umhvørvisstovan

Traðagøta 38 – Postboks 2048 – FO-165 Argir

Ph. +298 342400

us@us.fo

The report “Sustainable jet fuel for aviation” was launched at a seminar in Oslo on September 1st, 2016.

The report presents an overview of the current state in the Nordic countries of the development process for the sustainable jet fuel. The overall aim is to assess to what extent the use of advanced sustainable jet fuel may contribute to GHG reduction and mitigation, as well as identifying the extent of the commercial potential for initiating and scaling up advanced sustainable jet fuel production at a Nordic level. The report also explores how to most efficiently use the available Nordic know-how, feedstock and production facilities. The report draws on the latest available reports and statistics, as well as interviews with stakeholders and experts across the Nordic countries, concludes on identifying the most matured technologies, the Nordic opportunities and challenges, and ideas to mitigate the barriers within the Nordic private and public sectors.

Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives 2016 (NETP 2016) is a Nordic edition of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) global Energy Technology Perspectives 2016. The report offers a detailed scenario-based analysis of how the Nordic countries can achieve a near carbon-neutral energy system.

Get the report:

Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives was launched on May 23rd, 2016.

Download the report.

Figures and data from the report can be downloaded below.

Hard copies can be picked up from any of the partner institutions.

Browse the slides (prezi):

Download as a powerpoint presentation (without animations).

Watch the presentation:

Project leader Markus Wråke (IVL) presents the key results to Swedish Energy Minister Ibrahim Baylan at the official launch of the report, Stockholm, 23.05.2016

Read more about the latest edition, Nordic ETP 2016

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News: The IEA and Nordic Energy Research to continue work towards a second edition of the Nordic ETP in 2016. Click to read more.

Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives 2013 launched in January 2013, and is the first ever regional edition of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) global publication Energy Technology Perspectives.

• Download the 2013 report
• Download the 2013 slides in powerpoint format
• Download the 2013 figures in excel format
• Press release 2013

The IEA presented the 2013 results at five national launch events (see video), and the results have since been presented a various other conferences.

Nordic Energy Research held a series of workshops in 2013 to assess the feasibility of a second edition to be published in 2016. The project is currently underway and will launch in May 2016.

Pathways to a carbon-neutral Nordic energy system

Based on the IEA’s global scenario to limit average global temperature increase to 2°C, the Nordic edition includes an even more ambitious Carbon-Neutral Scenario, which assesses how the Nordic countries can achieve their national emission reduction targets for 2050 as a region.

Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives has established itself as a reference document for energy technology policy-making in the Nordic region, and offers international readers an example of Nordic leadership in the transition towards a sustainable energy system.

Try out the visualisations below, or read more about the project at the IEA’s project page: iea.org/etp/nordic.

“While decarbonizing electricity is still a central challenge for much of the world, the Nordic case offers insight into how a clean electricity system can be achieved and how it can facilitate decarbonization of other sectors.” – SES 2050 Report

The aim of the programme is to develop new knowledge and solutions, supporting the transition to a sustainable energy system in 2050.

The Flex4RES project investigates how an increased interaction between similar energy markets can facilitate the integration of variable renewable energy (VRE). Changes in regulatory frameworks to support this process is necessary. This may in turn ensure stable, sustainable and cost-efficient Nordic energy systems. By taking into account the energy system as a whole and looking at energy markets that are dependent on each other, we identify potentials, costs and benefits of achieving flexibility in the Nordic power market.

The advantage of combining different energy markets, both with respect to flexibility and economics, is that financial and environmental benefits can be created in several sectors at once. The heat, gas and transport sectors are obvious candidates for generating such benefits, as well as within power transmission and generation.